High Point, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

485
FXUS62 KRAH 061146
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
746 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build across and offshore the middle
Atlantic and Carolinas through tonight. A strong but moisture-
starved cold front will move across the region on Monday. Canadian
high pressure will follow and extend across the middle Atlantic
through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the northern Coastal Plain
and far northeast Piedmont through 10 AM.

...Dry and warmer/milder than average...

A mid-level ridge will extend from an anticyclone over the srn and
cntl Rockies ewd to the Carolinas, while a negatively-tilted nrn
stream shortwave trough will progress east and across the Great
Lakes and nrn middle Atlantic. At the surface, weak (~1022 mb) high
pressure will build across and offshore the middle Atlantic and
Carolinas, downstream of a couple of cold fronts that will approach
from the northwest and merge along the west-facing slopes of the
Appalachians by 12Z Mon.

After the morning fog disperses, a lingering area of stratus to
stratocumulus will drift wnwwd across the srn through wrn and nrn NC
Piedmont, with cloudy or mostly so conditions there, through midday.
Point forecast soundings suggest partly to mostly sunny conditions
will result throughout cntl NC this afternoon, followed by mainly
clear tonight. It will otherwise remain warmer/milder than average,
with high temperatures in the upr 70s-lwr 80s and lows in the mid
50s to lwr 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Sunday...

Warmer yet, and mainly dry.

An elongated mean cyclone from Hudson Bay to srn QC will favor
broadly cyclonic flow over the nern quarter of the CONUS and mainly
dry, wnwly flow over cntl NC. At the surface, a couple of moisture-
starved cold fronts that will have merged and banked up west of the
Appalachians Mon morning will move sewd and across cntl NC Mon
midday through evening - probably a few hours slower than the models
depict at this time, given their fast bias for cP air masses
crossing the Appalachians. Tropospheric-deep wnwly to nwly flow will
downslope dry the already moisture-starved cold front(s) such that
only a 15-30 percent chance of showers will result over the
Sandhills and srn/cntl Coastal Plain, where frontal passage timing
will best coincide with peak heating and ~500 J/kg MLCAPE during the
afternoon-evening. Temperatures Mon should warm into the lwr-mid 80s
for most, with some upr 80s possible around MEB-FAY. Cooler and
drier post-frontal flow will favor cooler than recent days low
temperatures in the upr 40s to around 50 over the Piedmont to mid-
upr 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

Dry weather should prevail, with below normal highs and near normal
lows.

Aloft, the northern stream cyclone will gradually swing eastward
through southeast Canada and the Northeast US Tue-Thu, with central
NC under wly (Tue/Tue night), then nwly (Wed/Thu) flow as the broad
trough axis slowly shifts ewd through the area. Meanwhile to the
south, Milton should move through ctl FL Wed/Wed night, then
continue enewd toward Bermuda through Sat. As of the latest model
guidance, it appears the northern stream trough should keep Milton
south-southeast of the area. As Milton moves away from the East
Coast Fri/Sat, a s/w will swing through the lwr MS Valley and settle
over the Deep South. At the surface, the front will likely stall
over the Southeast US as Milton approaches and moves eastward
through FL, with high pressure ridging into central NC. Still expect
central NC to largely remain on the cool side of the boundary, with
nely flow prevailing through Sat. For now, most if not all of the
rain associated with Milton should stay out of central NC. There
could be a period of stronger winds/gusts on Thu, mainly across the
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain, but that will depend on the
timing/track of the storm as it moves out over the Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 AM Sunday...

Widespread very low overcast and fog, and associated LIFR-VLIFR
conditions, will gradually lift and disperse to VFR through 16 or
17Z. Light surface winds and VFR conditions are otherwise expected
for the remainder of the 12Z TAF period.

Outlook: An otherwise moisture-starved cold front may support the
development of a band of showers from FAY to the coast late Mon
afternoon-evening. Canadian high pressure will follow and favor
mainly VFR conditions for the upcoming week. The exception to VFR
will be a chance of very shallow radiation fog at RWI Wed and Thu
morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ007>011-
026>028-043.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS